Population Dynamics Of Species Research Articles

Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of waterfowl productivity are synchronous across species, space, and time.

Knowledge of interspecific and spatiotemporal variation in demography-environment relationships is key for understanding the population dynamics of sympatric species and developing multispecies conservation strategies. We used hierarchical random-effects models to examine interspecific and spatial variation in annual productivity in six migratory ducks (i.e., American wigeon [Mareca americana], blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], gadwall [Mareca strepera], green-winged teal [Anas crecca], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos] and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) across six distinct ecostrata in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We tested whether breeding habitat conditions (seasonal pond counts, agricultural intensification, and grassland acreage) or cross-seasonal effects (indexed by flooded rice acreage in primary wintering areas) better explained variation in the proportion of juveniles captured during late summer banding. The proportion of juveniles (i.e., productivity) was highly variable within species and ecostrata throughout 1961-2019 and generally declined through time in blue-winged teal, gadwall, mallard, pintail, and wigeon, but there was no support for a trend in green-winged teal. Productivity in Canadian ecostrata declined with increasing agricultural intensification and increased with increasing pond counts. We also found a strong cross-seasonal effect, whereby more flooded rice hectares during winter resulted in higher subsequent productivity. Our results suggest highly consistent environmental and anthropogenic effects on waterfowl productivity across species and space. Our study advances our understanding of current year and cross-seasonal effects on duck productivity across a suite of species and at finer spatial scales, which could help managers better target working-lands conservation programs on both breeding and wintering areas. We encourage other researchers to evaluate environmental drivers of population dynamics among species in a single modeling framework for a deeper understanding of whether conservation plans should be generalized or customized given limited financial resources.

Environmental DNA: The next chapter.

Molecular tools are an indispensable part of ecology and biodiversity sciences and implemented across all biomes. About a decade ago, the use and implementation of environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect biodiversity signals extracted from environmental samples opened new avenues of research. Initial eDNA research focused on understanding population dynamics of target species. Its scope thereafter broadened, uncovering previously unrecorded biodiversity via metabarcoding in both well-studied and understudied ecosystems across all taxonomic groups. The application of eDNA rapidly became an established part of biodiversity research, and a research field by its own. Here, we revisit key expectations made in a land-mark special issue on eDNA in Molecular Ecology in 2012 to frame the development in six key areas: (1) sample collection, (2) primer development, (3) biomonitoring, (4) quantification, (5) behaviour of DNA in the environment and (6) reference database development. We pinpoint the success of eDNA, yet also discuss shortfalls and expectations not met, highlighting areas of research priority and identify the unexpected developments. In parallel, our retrospective couples a screening of the peer-reviewed literature with a survey of eDNA users including academics, end-users and commercial providers, in which we address the priority areas to focus research efforts to advance the field of eDNA. With the rapid and ever-increasing pace of new technical advances, the future of eDNA looks bright, yet successful applications and best practices must become more interdisciplinary to reach its full potential. Our retrospect gives the tools and expectations towards concretely moving the field forward.

A flexible theory for the dynamics of social populations: Within‐group density dependence and between‐group processes

AbstractDespite the importance of population structures throughout ecology, relatively little theoretical attention has been paid to understanding the implications of social groups for population dynamics. The dynamics of socially structured populations differ substantially from those of unstructured or metapopulation‐structured populations, because social groups themselves may split, fuse, and compete. These “between‐group processes” remain understudied as drivers of the dynamics of socially structured populations. Here, we explore the role of various between‐group processes in the dynamics of socially structured populations. To do so, we analyze a model that includes births, deaths, migration, fissions, fusions, and between‐group competition and flexibly allows for density dependence in each process. Both logistic growth and an Allee effect are considered for within‐group density dependence. We show that the effect of various between‐group processes is mediated by their influence on the stable distribution of group sizes, with the ultimate impact on the population determined by the interaction between within‐group density dependence and the process's effect on the group size distribution. Between‐group interactions that change the number of groups can lead to both negative and positive density dependence at the global population level (even if birth and death rates depend only on group size and not population size). We conclude with a series of case studies that illustrates different ways that age, sex, and class structure impact the dynamics of social populations. These case studies demonstrate the importance of group‐formation mechanisms, the cost of having excess males in a group, and the potential drawbacks of generating too many reproductive individuals. In sum, our results make clear the importance of within‐group density dependence, between‐group dynamics, and the interactions between them for the population dynamics of social species and provide a flexible framework for modeling social populations.

A flash in the pan? The population dynamics of a dominant pioneer species in tropical dry forest succession

AbstractGlobally, around half of all tropical forests are secondary communities which are recovering from previous disturbances. In these communities, dominant pioneers play a critical role in the successional dynamics due their ability to modify the environment, and thus to facilitate or hinder the performance of other species. In this study, we examined the population dynamics of the dominant pioneer species, Mimosa acantholoba var. eurycarpa, in a tropical dry forest during the process of secondary succession. We collected data from permanent plots over a period of 13 years and used integral projection models to analyze the vital rates and changes in population size. Most vital rates were negatively related to successional age, with resprouting, survival and recruitment of individuals responding more strongly, and individual growth rate more weakly. These vital‐rate trends translated into significant variation of population size over succession, with a maximum size at year four and a rapid decline thereafter. Overall, our findings suggest that this species benefits from its ability to display a large number of resprouts in very early stages of succession, contributing to the rapid increase in population density. However, as succession unfolds, a lack of resprouting and a decline in survival reduce its population size, to the point of local extinction. These results highlight the importance of resprouting in the early dynamics of tropical dry forest communities recovering from disturbance.

Spatial structuring of Mediterranean fisheries landings in relation to their seasonal and long-term fluctuations

The Western Mediterranean fisheries significantly contribute to the regional blue economy, despite evidence of ongoing, widespread overexploitation of stocks. Understanding the spatial distribution and population dynamics of species is crucial for comprehending fisheries dynamics combining local and regional scales, although the underlying processes are often neglected. In this study, we aimed to (i) evaluate the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations of crustacean, cephalopod, and fish populations in the Western Mediterranean, (ii) determine whether these fluctuations are driven by the spatial structure of the fisheries or synchronic species fluctuations, and (iii) compare groupings according to the individual species and life history-based groups. We used dynamic factor analysis to detect underlying patterns in a Landing Per Unit Effort (LPUE) time series (2009–2020) for 23 commercially important species and 33 ports in the Western Mediterranean. To verify the spatial structure of ports and species groupings we investigated the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations and common LPUE trends that exhibit non-homogeneous and species-specific trends, highlighting the importance of life history, environmental and demographic preferences. Long-term trends revealed spatial segregation with a north-south gradient, demonstrating complex population structures of Western Mediterranean resources. Seasonal patterns exhibited a varying spatial aggregation based on species-port combinations. These findings can inform the Common Fishery Policy on gaps challenging their regionalisation objectives in the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight the need for a nuanced and flexible approach and a better understanding of sub-regional processes for effective management and conservation – a current challenge for global fisheries. Our LPUE approach provides insight into population dynamics and changes in regional fisheries, relevant beyond the Mediterranean Sea.

Proximity to natural forests failed to rescue a declining agroforestry tree species

The conservation of species in human-modified landscapes such as agroforestry systems is central to global conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. Understanding the dynamics of key species in agroforestry systems is important for predicting the sustainability of these systems. However, the population dynamics of agroforestry tree species are often unknown, and planning for the management of these systems is generally grounded on the untested assumption that the tree component will persist over time. Here, we developed an integral projection model for Vitellaria paradoxa (Sapotaceae), one of the most important tree species in traditional agroforestry systems in West Africa. We collected three years of demographic data from six populations around the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve in Benin to parameterize this model and test the effect of populations’ proximity to natural habitats on the short- and long-term dynamics of V. paradoxa. However, models suggest that V. paradoxa populations are projected to decline at a yearly rate of 10.6% and within the next two decades, this tree will be locally extinct. We found a significant positive effect of proximity to natural forest on the long-term population dynamics, but this failed to save populations from decline. Elasticity analyses show that the best strategy to slow down such a decline includes preserving the largest mature trees. However, traditional management systems that protect shea butter trees in agroforestry systems are now replaced by increasing tree cutting to produce firewood, charcoal and carve out mortars and pestles. The decline of this key agroforestry tree poses a broader threat to long-term sustainability of agroforestry systems.

Microclimatic Influences on the Abundance of Three Non-Troglobiont Species

Subterranean environments are often characterized by a natural gradient of microclimatic conditions and trophic resources, showing a higher trophic availability and a lower microclimatic stability in the shallowest area (close to the cave entrance), while the opposite occurs in the deepest sections. The shallowest areas of subterranean environments (e.g., the entrance and twilight zone, Mesovoid Shallow Substratum) act as ecotones between the surface habitats and the deep areas, creating a particular habitat which can be exploited by numerous species with different degrees of adaptation to subterranean environments. Species living in these ecotones may hold a key role in sustaining the entire ecosystem, as they are likely one of the major drivers of allochthonous organic matter. Indeed, these species are usually facultative cave-dwellers, meaning that they are able to exit and forage on the surface. Once these species are back inside the cave, they provide the local community with different typologies of organic matter (e.g., feces, eggs), which represent one of the most important sources of organic carbon. Therefore, studying which ecological features may exert significant effects on the abundance of these species may be of great help in understanding the ecosystem dynamics and the functional role of each species. In this study we analyzed the data collected through a year-round monitoring program, aiming to assess the potential effects that both abiotic and biotic features may have on the abundance of three facultative cave species. We focused on seven caves located in Monte Albo (Sardinia, Italy). The cave environments were divided into 3-meter sectors, and within each cave sector, microclimatic and biological data were seasonally recorded. We focused on the following facultative cave species: the spiders Metellina merianae and Tegenaria sp. and the snail Oxychilus oppressus. Different relationships were observed between the ecological features and the abundance of the three species. The two spiders were more abundant in warmer cave sectors closer to the cave entrance, especially the M. merianae. On the other hand, the snail tended to be more abundant farther from the cave entrance and in more illuminated cave sectors, probably because sunlight promotes the abundance of some of its trophic resources (e.g., lichens, vegetation). Furthermore, O. oppressus was the only species whose abundance and cave distribution was significantly affected by seasonality. This study provides useful and novel information to understand the population dynamics of facultative cave species and their role in subterranean ecosystems.

Human infrastructures correspond to higher Adélie penguin breeding success and growth rate.

Anthropogenic activities generate increasing disturbance in wildlife especially in extreme environments where species have to cope with rapid environmental changes. In Antarctica, while studies on human disturbance have mostly focused on stress response through physiological and behavioral changes, local variability in population dynamics has been addressed more scarcely. In addition, the mechanisms by which breeding communities are affected around research stations remain unclear. Our study aims at pointing out the fine-scale impact of human infrastructures on the spatial variability in Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies dynamics. Taking 24 years of population monitoring, we modeled colony breeding success and growth rate in response to both anthropic and land-based environmental variables. Building density around colonies was the second most important variable explaining spatial variability in breeding success after distance from skua nests, the main predators of penguins on land. Building density was positively associated with penguins breeding success. We discuss how buildings may protect penguins from avian predation and environmental conditions. The drivers of colony growth rate included topographical variables and the distance to human infrastructures. A strong correlation between 1-year lagged growth rate and colony breeding success was coherent with the use of public information by penguins to select their initial breeding site. Overall, our study brings new insights about the relative contribution and ecological implications of human presence on the local population dynamics of a sentinel species in Antarctica.

Eco-evolutionary experience and behavioral innovation in interactions with non-native species

Behavioral changes play an important role for animals to cope with human-induced rapid environmental change such as biological invasions. The concept of eco-evolutionary experience (EEE) postulates that native species are more strongly impacted by non-native species the more these differ from species they have coevolved with. Also, EEE could influence the degree of innovation in new behaviors shown by native species. We conceived categorization schemes to assess both EEE and innovation and applied them to 86 records of behavioral change in native birds (n= 50), mammals (n= 19), and amphibians (n= 17). The results of this proof-of-concept study suggest an interconnectedness of EEE, innovation, and resulting population dynamics of native species. However, quantitative analyses were limited by the small size of our dataset. We encourage the use of the categorization schemes proposed here to close important knowledge gaps, so that our findings can be revisited with larger datasets in the future.

Reproductive patterns in Araucaria araucana forests in the Andean range, Chile

BackgroundAraucaria araucana is a mast species that presents a high variability in annual cone production. Researchers have recorded synchronization events in cone production in different populations, which allows the seed production to be concentrated, reducing the percentage of seeds consumed by different animal species.MethodsWe sampled three populations located in the Andes Mountains, Araucanía Region, Chile. In 2004 we began the collection of data on cone production, for which we installed permanent plots (1200 m2 each) at each location. We identified and labeled each female tree in each plot to monitor its cone production. In 2012 we selected a total of 30 trees near the plots to evaluate the number of seeds per cone. In each February from 2012 to 2014 we selected two mature cones and covered them with a porous mesh for subsequent collection and storage in March. At the beginning of June, we counted and weighed the seeds, determining the average weight, the number of seeds per cone, the germination capacity (GC), and the germination speed (GS).ResultsCone production was synchronous across the three locations. We observed significant differences among the locations and years evaluated. The cones had fewer seeds in 2013 (high production) compared to those in 2012 (low production), but their weights were similar. In 2014 the cones produced smaller seeds in fewer quantities. The difference between the years 2013 and 2014 resulted from the high-energy expenditure in 2013. Regarding GC and GS, there were significant differences among the three locations (GC: F = 45.41, p < 0.01; GS: F = 96.08, p < 0.01), where the highest values were observed in 2013.ConclusionsBoth GC and GS are related to seed weight but not to the number of cones produced in a given year. These annual fluctuations in seed production are determining factors in the population dynamics of forest species. Our results allow a better understanding of the reproductive phenology of A. araucana and could help define sustainable use and conservation actions for this species.

A genotyping array for the globally invasive vector mosquito, Aedes albopictus

BackgroundAlthough whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is the preferred genotyping method for most genomic analyses, limitations are often experienced when studying genomes characterized by a high percentage of repetitive elements, high linkage, and recombination deserts. The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), for example, has a genome comprising up to 72% repetitive elements, and therefore we set out to develop a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) chip to be more cost-effective. Aedes albopictus is an invasive species originating from Southeast Asia that has recently spread around the world and is a vector for many human diseases. Developing an accessible genotyping platform is essential in advancing biological control methods and understanding the population dynamics of this pest species, with significant implications for public health.MethodsWe designed a SNP chip for Ae. albopictus (Aealbo chip) based on approximately 2.7 million SNPs identified using WGS data from 819 worldwide samples. We validated the chip using laboratory single-pair crosses, comparing technical replicates, and comparing genotypes of samples genotyped by WGS and the SNP chip. We then used the chip for a population genomic analysis of 237 samples from 28 sites in the native range to evaluate its usefulness in describing patterns of genomic variation and tracing the origins of invasions.ResultsProbes on the Aealbo chip targeted 175,396 SNPs in coding and non-coding regions across all three chromosomes, with a density of 102 SNPs per 1 Mb window, and at least one SNP in each of the 17,461 protein-coding genes. Overall, 70% of the probes captured the genetic variation. Segregation analysis found that 98% of the SNPs followed expectations of single-copy Mendelian genes. Comparisons with WGS indicated that sites with genotype disagreements were mostly heterozygotes at loci with WGS read depth < 20, while there was near complete agreement with WGS read depths > 20, indicating that the chip more accurately detects heterozygotes than low-coverage WGS. Sample sizes did not affect the accuracy of the SNP chip genotype calls. Ancestry analyses identified four to five genetic clusters in the native range with various levels of admixture.ConclusionsThe Aealbo chip is highly accurate, is concordant with genotypes from WGS with high sequence coverage, and may be more accurate than low-coverage WGS.Graphical

Motion‐sensitive cameras track population abundance changes in a boreal mammal community in southwestern Yukon, Canada

AbstractMotion‐sensitive cameras are commonly used to monitor wildlife occupancy rates; however, few studies have assessed whether data from cameras are correlated with density estimates obtained from more traditional labor‐intensive methods such as those based on capture‐mark‐recapture. We used data from a boreal forest community to test whether camera data were correlated with densities estimated from independent monitoring methods. We placed 72 covert cameras in the forest around Lhù'ààn Mân' (Kluane Lake), Yukon, Canada, for 7 years and tracked changes in population densities by camera hit rates. We independently estimated population densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) using capture‐mark‐recapture via live trapping, and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), coyotes (Canis latrans), and moose (Alces americanus) by snow track transects. Density estimates obtained from conventional aerial surveys were also periodically available for moose. Except for red squirrels, camera hit rates were highly correlated with population density estimates obtained by traditional methods, including across a large range of estimated densities corresponding to cyclic population dynamics in several species. Accordingly, we infer that motion‐sensitive cameras could supplement or replace traditional methods for monitoring key species in boreal forest food webs. Using cameras to monitor population change has several advantages; they require less effort in the field, are non‐invasive compared to live‐trapping, include multiple species at the same time, and rely less on weather than either aerial surveys or snow track transects. Tracking changes across the vast boreal forest is becoming increasingly necessary because of climate and landscape change and our data validate the use of motion‐sensitive cameras to provide a useful quantitative method for state‐of‐the‐environment reporting.

Seed traits and recruitment interact with habitats to generate patterns of local adaptation in a perennial grass.

A fundamental challenge in the field of ecology involves understanding the adaptive traits and life history stages regulating the population dynamics of species across diverse habitats. Seed traits and early seedling vigor are thought to be key functional traits in plants with important consequences for recruitment, establishment, and population persistence. However, little is known about how diverse seed traits interact with seed and microsite availability to impact plant populations. Here, we performed a factorial experiment involving seed addition and surface soil disturbance to explore the combined effects of seed and site availability using genotypes characterized by varying seed mass and dormancy traits. Additionally, we included hybrids that exhibited recombined seed trait relationships compared to natural genotypes, allowing us to assess the impact of specific seed traits on establishment across different sites. We detected a significant three-way interaction between seed addition, site conditions, and soil surface disturbance, influencing both seedling establishment and adult recruitment in Panicum hallii, a perennial grass found in coastal mesic (lowland) and inland xeric (upland) habitats. This establishment/recruitment pattern suggests that mesic and xeric establishment at foreign sites is constrained by the interplay of seed and site limitations. Notably, soil surface disturbance facilitated establishment and recruitment of the xeric genotype while limiting the mesic genotype across all sites. Our results highlight the importance of seed size and dormancy as key factors impacting seedling establishment and adult recruitment, suggesting a potential interactive relationship between these traits.

Population dynamics of dominant dinoflagellate species in the North Sea: in situ growth rates, photosynthetic potential, and losses due to parasitism

In the North Sea, Tripos and Dinophysis are commonly occurring mixotrophic planktonic dinoflagellate genera. In order to understand their bloom dynamics, an occurring bloom dominated by T. furca and D. norvegica was followed for several days. High cell abundances of these species were located to estimate: in situ growth rates from cell cycle analyses, depth distributions, growth rates sustained by photosynthesis, and parasite infection prevalence in all T. furca, T. fusus, D. norvegica and D. acuminata. Cell abundances were over 10000 cells L−1 for T. furca and up to 18000 cells L−1 for D. norvegica. Cells accumulated between 15-25 m depth and presented low specific in situ growth rates of 0.04-0.15 d−1 for T. furca and 0.02-0.16 d−1 for D. norvegica. Photosynthesis could sustain growth rates of 0.01-0.18 d−1 for T. furca and 0.02 to 0.14 d−1 for D. norvegica, suggesting that these species were relying mainly on photosynthesis. Parasite infections where generally low, with occasional high prevalence in D. norvegica (by Parvilucifera sp.) and T. fusus (by Amoebophrya sp.), while both parasites showed comparable prevalence in D. acuminata, which could offset in situ growth rates by parasite-induced host mortality. The restructuring effect of parasites on dinoflagellate blooms is often overlooked and this study elucidates their effect to cell abundances and their growth at the final stages of a bloom.

Effects of heavy metal pollution on population dynamics of another important pollinator insect group: Horseflies (Diptera: Tabanidae)

Horseflies represent important agents of pollination as well as other pollinator insects, like butterflies, bees and wasps. Horseflies belong to the genera Atylotus, Dasyramphis, Glaucops, Pangonius, Philoliche, Chrysops, Hybomitra, and Tabanus species are exclusive nectar feeders. Glucose, fructose and sucrose are major components of plant nectars which are used nourishing for developing eggs. Because of these features horseflies have a significant role in pollination of phanerogams. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of toxic heavy metals on the population dynamics of horsefly species. Monthly changes on the accumulation of heavy metals in the larval habitats of horsefly species were determined with Perkin Elmer Optical Spectrophotometer and also correlations between concentrations of heavy metals and population fluctuations of horse fly species were observed. The results demonstrated that lead, iron and cadmium have statistically important negative effects on the population dynamics of horsefly species.

Population study of long-tailed macaque (Macaca fascicularis) on Deli Island, Banten, Indonesia

Abstract. Fitriana YS, Sulistyadi E, Tohir RK, Hasibuan MM, Rifaie F, Maryanto I, Lubis AM, Rifqi MF. 2024. Population study of long-tailed macaque (Macaca fascicularis) on Deli Island, Banten, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 25: 144-150. Understanding the distribution and population dynamics of primate species is essential for practical conservation efforts. However, such information is often unavailable, even for species whose populations appear abundant. The long-tailed macaque (Macaca fascicularis Raffles, 1821) is a species with a wide range in Southeast Asia, including Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Bali, Lombok, and Lesser Sunda in Indonesia. However, comprehensive data on population density across its Indonesian distribution area still needs to be improved. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a thorough survey and study to estimate the population density of long-tailed macaques on Deli Island, located in Banten Province. Long-tailed macaques were introduced to Deli Island between 1989 and 1990 with a total of 1000 males and 10,000 females. To date, a total of 9,500 individuals have been harvested from this island in the period 1991-2010. We employed the line transect distance sampling (LTDS) method with a perpendicular distance approach that covered all habitat types throughout the island. Our findings revealed that the population density of long-tailed macaques on Deli Island is approximately five individuals per hectare, with an estimated total population of 4,860. The data pertaining to age structure and sex ratio is notably limited, primarily due to challenges in identification caused by dense vegetation. To address these limitations and acquire a more comprehensive understanding, additional research is essential for the accurate determination of the age structure and sex ratio on the island. Our study provides crucial baseline data for conserving this species. We recommend implementing a systematic survey encompassing the entire distribution range of the long-tailed macaque across Indonesia. Such an initiative will be instrumental in assessing its threat status and laying out a comprehensive plan for conservation efforts.

Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change.

Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

Drivers of spatio-temporal population dynamics of game species in a mountain landscape

Since the end of the nineteenth century, socio-economic changes have greatly altered the Central European landscape and the structural and functional quality of habitats. Urban sprawl areas have appeared, a reduction of multiple forest uses has resulted in the densification of forests and agricultural land use has changed fundamentally through specialisation and intensification. Many of these changes affect biodiversity. To determine the important drivers of spatio-temporal dynamics of the population of 28 game species, we first considered a total of 130 potential explanatory variables. Second, we aggregated the main drivers of single-species models for habitat guilds. Third, we evaluated the results to aid in the development and implementation of mitigation measures for different ecoregions. We used harvest data as a surrogate for population density from 1875 to 2014 in South Tyrol, Italy. In generalised linear models, we used environmental characteristics such as climate, landscape diversity and structures, land cover, hunting, wildlife diseases, competition and predation, land-use type, and intensity (including pesticide use) as explanatory variables to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of game species. The important drivers are land use and management changes (intensification in the agriculturally favourable areas, extensification or abandonment in the unfavourable areas) as well as associated changes in the landscape features, diversity and structure, and hunting management. Climatic variables, interspecific competition and diseases only play a subordinate role. The dynamics of the habitat guilds and their drivers provide concrete indications for measures to maintain or improve the habitat quality for the investigated species. Particularly important are transfer payments to ensure extensive agricultural use, increasingly through the takeover of personnel costs, but also for the installation of an independent body that monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of the measures.

Bigger is better: age class‐specific survival rates in long‐lived turtles increase with size

AbstractVital rates for small, non‐breeding individuals are important components of population dynamics for many species, but often individuals of these sizes are difficult to locate, capture, and track. As such, biologists frequently lack reliable estimates of juvenile survival because sample sizes and recapture rates for this life stage are low. Long‐lived animals often take many years to reach sexual maturity and spend much of this time in the smaller size classes, making them sensitive to changes in survival rates. We estimated the survival rates of all size classes for the northern map turtle (Graptemys geographica) using a mark‐recapture dataset with &gt;3,500 captures from 2019–2021 and 210 nests from 2018–2021. As turtle size increased, annual survival probability increased regardless of sex. Estimated annual survival probability for turtles &gt;18 cm long (i.e., adult females &gt;15 years) was about 0.95, over 4 times higher than turtles that were 3 cm long (i.e., hatchlings &lt;1 year; 0.22 annual survival probability). Although we did not observe a difference in survival probability between sexes of any size class, adult females are nearly twice the size of adult males, leading to an increased annual survival probability for females of 0.95, compared to 0.80 for males. Changes in adult survival had the greatest influence on population estimates over time, with temporary decreases, such as those due to poaching or an environmental disaster, potentially leading to unrecoverable decreases in the overall population size. Our study provides detailed survival rates for all size classes in a long‐lived turtle, which are necessary to assess population stability and can be used to determine the most effective conservation or management practices.

Overcoming data gaps using integrated models to estimate migratory species' dynamics during cryptic periods of the annual cycle

Abstract Environmental and anthropogenic factors affect the population dynamics of migratory species throughout their annual cycles. However, identifying the spatiotemporal drivers of migratory species' abundances is difficult because of extensive gaps in monitoring data. The collection of unstructured opportunistic data by volunteer (citizen science) networks provides a solution to address data gaps for locations and time periods during which structured, design‐based data are difficult or impossible to collect. To estimate population abundance and distribution at broad spatiotemporal extents, we developed an integrated model that incorporates unstructured data during time periods and spatial locations when structured data are unavailable. We validated our approach through simulations and then applied the framework to the eastern North American migratory population of monarch butterflies during their spring breeding period in eastern Texas. Spring climate conditions have been identified as a key driver of monarch population sizes during subsequent summer and winter periods. However, low monarch densities during the spring combined with very few design‐based surveys in the region have limited the ability to isolate effects of spring weather variables on monarchs. Simulation results confirmed the ability of our integrated model to accurately and precisely estimate abundance indices and the effects of covariates during locations and time periods in which structured sampling are lacking. In our case study, we combined opportunistic monarch observations during the spring migration and breeding period with structured data from the summer Midwestern breeding grounds. Our model revealed a nonstationary relationship between weather conditions and local monarch abundance during the spring, driven by spatially varying vegetation and temperature conditions. Data for widespread and migratory species are often fragmented across multiple monitoring programs, potentially requiring the use of both structured and unstructured data sources to obtain complete geographic coverage. Our integrated model can estimate population abundance at broad spatiotemporal extents despite structured data gaps during the annual cycle by leveraging opportunistic data.